Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020, has found that the COVID-19 uncertainty will globally dent electric vehicle (EV) sales, but as the market recovers, it is expected to experience a healthy growth of over 10% in 2020.

EVs are estimated to grow by 8.6% year on year (YoY), registering 2.5 million-unit sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVS) and plug-in hybrid EVs, globally in 2020, according to the analysis.

EV sales are estimated to stand between ±9% in 2020 in comparison to 2019 under three different scenarios—gradual containment, severe pandemic and global emergency.

Prajyot Sathe, automotive and transportation industry manager at Frost & Sullivan, said: “EV sales will be driven by the implementation of stringent emission norms across countries and global policies favouring the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

“Additionally, non-monetary or tax incentives are likely to be more attractive for buyers as countries with the highest EV penetration ratio such as Norway and the Netherlands offer these rather than cash incentives.

“If BEVs are pushed by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on new energy vehicle (NEV) credit mandates, China is set to remain the market leader with a 48.3% share. Further, Europe is expected to have the highest YoY growth of over 10%—availability of models, reduced delivery times and compliance push are major growth factors in the EU.”

To tap into growth prospects exposed by EVs, Frost & Sullivan highlights areas for market participants to focus on:

  • The introduction of new models will help OEMs increase the percent penetration of EVs
  • A huge number of recyclers and dismantlers will come into play as the first phase of batteries will be available for second life or recycling
  • Charging as a service is an emerging trend. Partnerships will be necessary for traditional participants to compete with start-ups
  • Capitalising on existing expertise will help component manufacturers sustain the transformation of the industry