Citroën UK managing director Karl Howkins said he fears the country is heading for both situations, and the carmaker’s scenario modelling suggests new car and van sales in the UK could fall by at least 10% and possibly as much as 25%.

Citroën UK managing director Karl Howkins said he fears the country is heading for both situations, and the carmaker’s scenario modelling suggests new car and van sales in the UK could fall by at least 10% and possibly as much as 25%.

That would send the current total industry annual volume of about 2.68 million cars and vans down to just more than 2m units, putting the new car market on the same level as 2008’s recession. Howkins said he anticipates dealer failures across the industry.

There are already vulnerable sites in Citroën’s dealer network. The average return-on-sales (ROS) figure for the whole network is just 0.1% – half of the 145 dealerships are at breakeven point or are loss-making.

For many, structural costs or headcount are too high for the revenues they are able to achieve. “For our dealers to be successful … you have to be multi-franchised,” said Howkins.