Year-end could rival pandemic woes for new car market, warns Cox Automotive

The new car market will face huge challenges by year-end, according to Cox Automotive which is warning that pressures could be even worse that those caused by the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

The warning follows the release of Cox Automotive’s revised 2024 new car forecast, now predicting 2,018,446 registrations for the year.

This represents a slight 2.07% decrease from the previous forecast, factoring in the performance recorded by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) in the first two quarters and the expected volatility in Q4 as the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate influences manufacturer strategies.

The revised forecast includes 552,891 registrations in Q3 and 458,792 in Q4, leading to a 6.1% increase over 2023’s full-year volume. However, this remains 12.7% below the 2000-2019 average.

The full forecast, including alternative scenarios, is detailed in Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Quarterly report.