Rapid advances in EV battery tech driving lifespan to rival ICE equivalents

Electric vehicles (EV) are demonstrating rapid improvement in reliability, with a 12 per cent lower likelihood of failure for each successive year of production, according to new research by a multinational team of researchers.

The team which has published its findings in Nature, analysed nearly 300 million UK Ministry of Transport (MOT) test records, documenting the ‘health’ of vehicles on Britain’s roads between 2005 and 2022.

 This extensive dataset enabled the team to estimate vehicle longevity and provide a comprehensive comparison of survival rates across different powertrains, including internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) and battery electric vehicles (BEV).

The study revealed that while early BEVs were less reliable than their ICE counterparts, rapid advances in battery technology, manufacturing processes and vehicle design have dramatically improved the reliability of newer BEVs, allowing them to achieve comparable, and in some cases superior, lifespans.

“If the trends estimated in this study persist, the total cost of ownership (TCO) and environmental advantages of upcoming BEV models could far exceed previous estimations,” said the team.

However, battery longevity remains a key consideration. Lithium-ion batteries dominate current EV technology, with warranties typically covering 8 years or 100,000 miles.

While Tesla asserts its batteries are designed to outlast the vehicle, while Nissan reports that nearly all batteries it produced over the past 12 years remain in use, the team insists that to fully realise the benefits of a longer BEV lifespan, replacement batteries must be affordable relative to the residual value of BEVs without their original batteries.

They warn that if battery replacement costs do not fall quickly enough, owners may choose to prematurely write off their BEVs, which could skew the comparison of BEV longevity against ICE vehicles and lead to the emergence of ‘EV graveyards’ in China, where EVs are abandoned before reaching the end of their mechanical lifespan due to the failure of new car manufacturers.

To address these issues, the team recommend robust regulation and the development of a circular economy for batteries.