Petrol market share predicted to drop to 30% by 2028

The petrol new car market is expected to drop to 30% by 2028, as electric vehicle sales continue to increase, according to the latest forecasts by Cox Automotive.

Cox Automotive’s new car four-year forecast reveals a predicted market share of 36% for EVs.

Despite this falling short of Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets, Cox still believes this is a positive signal for the industry. 

Looking at the changes in the past four years, diesel’s market share has continued to decline, representing just over 6% in 2024 - a decrease of more than two million units, or a 76.21% drop.

While still retaining the lion’s share, petrol has also seen a reduction, with a loss of 1.4 million units, representing a 26.61% decline over the same period.

The next four years will remain volatile

These changes highlight growing volumes of EVs entering driveways today, a promising development in the face of an evolving ZEV mandate.

Compared to the previous four-year period, the rise of full-battery EVs has been remarkable, with a staggering increase of nearly 560%.

Since 2020, approximately 979,000 EVs have entered the market, capturing just shy of 20% of the total market in 2024.  

However, as found by a recent consumer attitudes survey completed by Cox Automotive and Regit, there are significant barriers to overcome if the industry hopes to realise these targets. 

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The next four years will remain volatile as the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever-evolving consumer demands.

“We will continue to bear witness to the rise of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while incumbent manufacturers adjust their in-market strategies.

“All while the industry responds and adapts to increasingly diverse local and internal regulations.”

New car growth of 1.5% predicted for 2025

The 2025 baseline forecast predicts just over two million car registrations, a modest 1.5% increase over 2024. However, volumes remain 13.3% behind the 2001-2019 average.

Global production of cars and light commercial vehicles has steadily increased and is expected to stabilise through 2025-28.

Registrations fell short of the two million mark in 2024, however, resulting in a significant deficit of 1.7 million fewer vehicles on UK roads between 2020-24.

This challenge was further compounded by the slow recovery of private buyers, whose registrations have declined by 19.2% in the same timeframe. 

The new market will also be altered by a host of new brands now available to UK drivers.

Following a raft of new market entrants in 2024, including BYD, Jaecoo, Omoda and Skywell, the UK is now home to over 60 manufacturers.

These challenger brands are coming in strong, which is pushing traditional manufacturers to work harder to retain their customer bases and keep pace with evolving technology coming from these new brands.   

Nothard added: “Breaking the two million mark in new car registrations in 2025 will be a pivotal milestone for the UK’s automotive recovery.

“Achieving this target will be heavily dependent on the ability of new market entrants to establish their brands and build trust with UK drivers.

“The confidence of the fleet and leasing sectors will also play a critical role in sustaining growth and driving the transition toward alternative fuel vehicles.”