Executive View: The route to target achieved in the EV market

James Vickery, head of policy, ZEV regulations at the Office for Zero Emission Vehicles (OZEV), part of the Department for Transport, explores how the UK's motor retail industry overall can have confidence that the first year of the ZEV Mandate was a success. 

Shall we talk about those SMMT December and 2024 car stats?!

• 31% BEV market share for December - up from 19.7% in Dec 2023
• 19.6% BEV Market share across 2024 - up from 16.5% in 2023
• Strongest BEV year
• 2nd strongest BEV month by % (after Dec 2022)
• 2nd strongest BEV month by volume (after Nov 2024!)

But let's tackle the main talking point - that 19.6% is under the ZEV Mandate target of 22%.

The way the mandate actually works is 'have enough credits and allowances to cover your non-ZEV sales - and this year we'll give you allowances for free covering 78% of your overall vehicle sales'.

Anyone going beyond 78% non-ZEV/falling beneath 22% ZEV needs to find other routes to earning/owning allowances and credits.

Enter the non-ZEV > ZEV transfer mechanism.

To cut a very long story short, any manufacturer that has reduced their non-ZEV emissions compared to 2021 levels can convert that saving into ZEV credits.

How did the UK market as a whole perform?

Using the SMMT stats and press release -
⛽ We know the average non-ZEV car in 2021 was 135g CO2
🚗 2024 non-ZEV average = 126.9ish
🚗 Number of non-ZE cars sold? 1,570,808 - so about 12.7m gCO2 saved compared to 2021 based on WLTP test levels.
⚡ Across the entire UK market, how many ZEVs does that CO2 saving equate to? An additional 76,189!

Now for the sake of accuracy, I have simplified this.

• There is a cap on individual conversions that some manufacturers will hit.
• Some will choose not transfer at all.
• Some manufacturers will have the ability to transfer more than this rough estimate assumes, due to the way the 2021 baseline works.
• And this is using UK figures, when the ZEV mandate only applied in GB in 2024 (not Northern Ireland).

But the main takeaway is that with the flexibilities included - the car market hit the 22% target overall.

That isn't to say there isn't more that can be done, or that the regulation itself can't better support manufacturers in meeting the 2030 and 2035 phase out dates.

The consultation on the 2030 definition and on potential amendments to the ZEV mandate is under way here -  have your say before 18 February!

Author: James Vickery, head of policy, ZEV regulations at the Office for Zero Emission Vehicles (OZEV)